DeletedUser
Guest
Not that anyone has asked but here are my thoughts about the end game as every time I click on the World Wonders Tab I'm reminded that the age of wonders comes in four months. I rather naively started playing this game back in December 2011 when I was intrigued by an add showing a Disneyworld version of Zeus in an add advertising the game. I always resisted similar ads for Evony as they showed full busted maidens with a bit too much cleavage which I assumed were used to lure unsuspecting junior high school age males. Zeus seemed a bit different so I thought I would give Nu a try.
After 16 months (how is that possible) I've learned a lot about on line games and a certain amount of people who play them -- which appears to be mostly males of all ages.
So where's Nu at the end of March 2012.
Well to start of here's the map, showing the four major alliances:
http://en13.grepolismaps.org/b98d3b7eb9532f24482a6870729197c4
In case you haven't looked at the map before and the geography isn't obvious, TE is White, The 13th is light blue, The Dukes are Red and DY is Green.
It's pretty clear from the map that my alliance, DY has the worse slice of the Nu pie. We have three fronts and unfortunately they are all active. For some reason, possibly as payback for something we all did in a past life we are at war with TE AND The 13th AND the Dukes.
This would be bad enough just in and of itself. However after extensive gazing at the map I have to conclude that in fact the 13th and TE are in bed with each other, or at least have a very tight pact. Why do I think this? Because otherwise it would make no sense for TE to only be at war with us. They have a very nice border with the 13th but no a single city has changed hands between those two alliance in quite a while (check colonizations in Grepostats).
A similar pact likely exists with the Dukes, or at least the Dukes have a pact with the 13th because again, there's been no city takeovers from one alliance to the other for quite a while.
Given the geography the Dukes and TE can't be at it at the moment because they don't share a border.
However the current activity of war against DY on three fronts and a complete lack of aggression between the other three large alliances gives me all the data I need to formulate the hypothesis that all three are currently pacted.
My hypothesis regarding the next phase of the war will begin once the 162 combined players of the three alliance whittle away at the 63 DY players down. Let me parenthetically add I am awed by the 2.6 to 1 odds here. At that point whatever DY players are left standing will join either the Dukes or TE based mostly on geographic considerations. Any players left standing are going to be useful to the end game and I doubt we will be shunned based on our original origins.
The second thing that will happen is that TE and the 13th will merge. Frankly the 13th isn't that good (sorry guys, you aren't). We don't lose cities to the 13th except for some that were too remote to reasonably defend. Of course with the battle fatigue that comes with 2.6 to 1 odds, who knows what may happen. So the 13th isn't going to try and fight with TE. Furthermore when we've tried to take cities from the 13th we've found a huge amount of defense there, quite out of proportion of what you would expect 40 odd players to muster. Either they are extraordinarily good at defending or they have help from geographically friendly cities.
Then the final war will be between TE and the Dukes, who at that point will each occupy about 1/2 of Nu. The rest of the alliances will be largely irrelevant (sorry guys) because you don't need to own every city to win, you just need to get it together to build your world wonders.
And that's my prediction. I do predictions for a living. I regularly review data and formulate hypothesis and I'm pretty good at it. I have almost 100 peer reviewed publications resulting from experiments I did after formulating a hypothesis or two or three.
I guess in a couple of months we'll find out if I'm right or not. But if it happens you heard it here first.
In any case the game is definitely worth the 28 cents a day I spend to buy premium. And BTW I'm planning to fight on! I went to med school when the ratio of men to women was 6.6 to 1 so I've faced more challenging obstacles.
Cheers.
After 16 months (how is that possible) I've learned a lot about on line games and a certain amount of people who play them -- which appears to be mostly males of all ages.
So where's Nu at the end of March 2012.
Well to start of here's the map, showing the four major alliances:
http://en13.grepolismaps.org/b98d3b7eb9532f24482a6870729197c4
In case you haven't looked at the map before and the geography isn't obvious, TE is White, The 13th is light blue, The Dukes are Red and DY is Green.
It's pretty clear from the map that my alliance, DY has the worse slice of the Nu pie. We have three fronts and unfortunately they are all active. For some reason, possibly as payback for something we all did in a past life we are at war with TE AND The 13th AND the Dukes.
This would be bad enough just in and of itself. However after extensive gazing at the map I have to conclude that in fact the 13th and TE are in bed with each other, or at least have a very tight pact. Why do I think this? Because otherwise it would make no sense for TE to only be at war with us. They have a very nice border with the 13th but no a single city has changed hands between those two alliance in quite a while (check colonizations in Grepostats).
A similar pact likely exists with the Dukes, or at least the Dukes have a pact with the 13th because again, there's been no city takeovers from one alliance to the other for quite a while.
Given the geography the Dukes and TE can't be at it at the moment because they don't share a border.
However the current activity of war against DY on three fronts and a complete lack of aggression between the other three large alliances gives me all the data I need to formulate the hypothesis that all three are currently pacted.
My hypothesis regarding the next phase of the war will begin once the 162 combined players of the three alliance whittle away at the 63 DY players down. Let me parenthetically add I am awed by the 2.6 to 1 odds here. At that point whatever DY players are left standing will join either the Dukes or TE based mostly on geographic considerations. Any players left standing are going to be useful to the end game and I doubt we will be shunned based on our original origins.
The second thing that will happen is that TE and the 13th will merge. Frankly the 13th isn't that good (sorry guys, you aren't). We don't lose cities to the 13th except for some that were too remote to reasonably defend. Of course with the battle fatigue that comes with 2.6 to 1 odds, who knows what may happen. So the 13th isn't going to try and fight with TE. Furthermore when we've tried to take cities from the 13th we've found a huge amount of defense there, quite out of proportion of what you would expect 40 odd players to muster. Either they are extraordinarily good at defending or they have help from geographically friendly cities.
Then the final war will be between TE and the Dukes, who at that point will each occupy about 1/2 of Nu. The rest of the alliances will be largely irrelevant (sorry guys) because you don't need to own every city to win, you just need to get it together to build your world wonders.
And that's my prediction. I do predictions for a living. I regularly review data and formulate hypothesis and I'm pretty good at it. I have almost 100 peer reviewed publications resulting from experiments I did after formulating a hypothesis or two or three.
I guess in a couple of months we'll find out if I'm right or not. But if it happens you heard it here first.
In any case the game is definitely worth the 28 cents a day I spend to buy premium. And BTW I'm planning to fight on! I went to med school when the ratio of men to women was 6.6 to 1 so I've faced more challenging obstacles.
Cheers.
Last edited by a moderator: