Just to add my two cents- I hate events and try my best not to play them. So...as someone who decided to pick up the early boxes late in the game (and was a math major so I love playing with stats)...I believe there’s an added difficulty factor based on elapsed time from the start of the event that isn’t openly shared.
For example, on one server in the early days I got the percentages you’d expect with the right troops mixes.
On another server where I didn’t do much until a few weeks in, when everyone else was on boxes 20+, I was losing WAY too much for where I was at in the process. I should’ve been winning 70-80 percent of the time and was losing 70 percent of the time. There’s no reasonable explanation for this unless it’s buried in the code.
I’d bet my house that the programming is designed to make it more difficult as time passes, regardless of the stated percentages. So week three of the event it will be annoying to close box 8 or 10 just because it’s week three and not week one.
I was only interested in this from a mathematical/programming perspective, as I absolutely HATE events. But I thought it was interesting to share with those who care.
Do I have 1000 exposures? No. Because it was stupid to keep going.