I was gonna ask why TF is coming down so hard on Owen randomly, then I looked them up in 105 and realized they probably need that victory more than I need to chime in. So here's a top 12.
1) Thermopylae/Thermopylae II- There's a lot of talk about their past. But this is a new world right? Well they have a solid enough core, but do have stragglers in other oceans. The biggest downer for them is their not only in the same ocean as Confetti, but on opposite islands. Its gonna take some serious leadership and play to prevent being beat again. I feel like this group will pull out all the stops to win here, but i'm not sure it'll be enough. FLOAT.
2) Confetti- Thee team of 110. They're top in average and on their own are #1 in points. I think they'll immediately try to make being #1 on future editions of this list a top priority by knocking out Thermo again. But the waters aren't all secure for Confetti. They have Thermo right below them, KAOS under that, Avengers in the corner, and VELHA GUARDA to their east. This is what i'm referencing by pulling out the stops by Thermo. I'd expect them to probably pick up 2/3 of those alliances mentioned. This will help make it a dog fight early for Confetti. But I think they'll pull through. FLOAT THEN SWIM.
3) Dragon Riders/Dragon Flames- They're not the best cored in O45. But with how many top alliances landed in this area, they have a chance to make a run at it. That said, I think the going is too tough for them and they eventually fall. FLOAT THEN SINK.
4) KAOS- This looks a lot better than the KAOS teams I've seen in the past. They're in an interesting position. Their first job is going to have to be coring, they have one of the worst in the top 12. But they've been blessed with landing in exactly the right spot to do that. They're under Thermo and by Avengers. Both of whom are better cored but will likely be more focused on their oceans too care much about KAOS...Still, if those groups decide to make KAOS food, it'll be a rough go. FLOAT.
5) Sons of Odin- This seems like a pretty solid group on paper, there's no immediate threats near by either. But they need to tighten up their core. SWIM.
6) VELHA GUARDA- Best core and positioning in the world. They have some good players to back it up as well. I think they're the only real long term threat to Confetti in O54. SWIM.
7) Never Walk Alone- They're located in O45. They don't entirely own an island but are packed closely together to offset this fact. I've heard of a couple of their players, but overall I think they're going to be out gunned in their area. SINK.
8) The Blame Game- You be the judge.
9) Avengers- I've seen a few of their players and they have the best core in O45. But they don't have the best positioning in O45. They're wedged between KAOS, Sons of Odin, Never Walk Alone, Dragon Riders/Flames, and Thermo. They need to be ready for a dog fight and perhaps make an ally in order to come out in control of O45. FLOAT.
10) Victorian Empire- Fought them in En107. This is pretty much a lock to SINK.
11) Kleos- Have a decent core in O44, are lucky enough to be by Victorian Empire so this should be an easy top 10 win for them. SWIM.
12) FAIL- Landed away from the main threats, good enough starting core, and good players. SWIM.