Top 12 predictions
Since I haven't seen a lot of thorough assesments here, I will create my own briefly.
1. A Team: I am biased slightly by being one of them, but I'm expecting them to go far. Solid player base, and strong leadership. Once they work out the kinks they should transform into a well oiled machine.
2. Condemned: I personally question how effectively they will be able to coordinate/utilize their sister alliance. They have an extremely varied player base. I would recommend weeding it a bit, otherwise the weaker players could be dead weight.
3. Kallistei: I'm expecting this alliance to do extremely well. They don't appear to have any serious competition in their ocean, and if their leadership commands them effectively they should be able to secure their ocean before any other top alliance can secure theirs. I would very seriously advise leaders of top alliances to keep an eye on them.
4. DreadFleet: They aren't to bad, but bad luck has put them in the same ocean as A Team. Small combat has already broken out. I also wouldn't be surprised if other alliances jumped in to seize their holdings in other oceans.
5. Depraved Tendencies: They're to spread out, and will most likely be swallowed whole by Kallistei and other alliances.
6. Above Average Players: I don't know much about them, but luck has put them in a low competition ocean. If Condemned doesn't get their act together they may have a shot...
7. Contempus: Unless they are able to stand on their own 2 feet without the leadership or support of their main alliance, they will be crushed. If they can find an independent niche then they may be able to rival Kallistei, but that's a big if.
8. Theros: They are to spread out, I don't think they have a strong future.
9. Wine Dark Sea: I vaguely remember fighting and defeating an alliance by the same name as this one on another server, if there is any relation then they are toast.
10. Tito: Members must be from a former Yugoslav nation, this must be a bad joke... The Balkan nations can't be civil with each other in real life, how are they going to do it in Grepolis. We may see Grepolis's first major civil war...
11. Conflicted: They are in a low competition ocean, but I don't think that is going to help them looking at their member base.
12. Death Lingers: This alliance attempted to recruit me, one of the few ones that I actually entertained. They seem fairly solid and appear to have a strong leadership. They are in the same ocean as A Team and DreadFleet, and appear to be hanging back. I wouldn't count them out, but I feel that their future will depend very much on what happens in the war between the 2 big dogs of ocean 45.
*Just to be clear, I feel that there are several strong alliances that are not in the top 12. These alliances have a lot of potential, and I wouldn't say that we are looking at a definitive set of major players by any means. Although each one of these alliances has potential in some way (which i have tried to point out), I would bet that only half can hold themselves together and maintain their rankings in the next 2 weeks.